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Unemployment Rate Close to Record Lows:
Pendulum Swing to Come?

The labor market definitely looks different from the GDP and the inflation rate. We are hovering close to the record levels of 2019, with a nationwide unemployment rate of 3.7% in August.

It seems that the pool of available workers is tightening, and if this trend continues to improve, there could a case for an interesting pendulum swing as economic conditions change.

With a tight supply, we are today in a “candidate market”, just as the real-estate market is a “seller’s market”. Employers who need great executive talent have to up the ante, and come up with compensation & benefits packages sufficiently attractive to lure the candidates they want.

Economic indicators are not that rosy, however, and employers in several industries like big tech and retail have already laid off quantities of workers and frozen their hiring plans.

If the GDP doesn’t correct course and inflation remains unchecked over the quarter, more layoffs will follow as the sentiment degrades.

Hence the idea of a pendulum swing in the labor market.

From a “candidate’s market”, the labor market could turn into an “employers’ market”, with (a) managerial candidates being willing to take a pay cut to land a new job, and (b) those currently employed holding tight on asking for promotions and raises, appreciating instead their job security.

Food for thought… Call us to discuss your needs in top talent.

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